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    LOWES COMPANIES (LOW)

    LOW Q1 2026: Pro Sales Rise 5%; Acquires ADG to Tap $50B Market

    Reported on May 22, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$231.25Last close (May 20, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$232.70Open (May 21, 2025)
    Price Change
    $1.45(+0.63%)
    • Strong Pro Business Momentum: The updated Pro loyalty program (MyLowe's Pro Rewards) and mid‐single digit Pro sales growth underscore Lowe’s effective strategy in driving repeat business and higher customer spend. This commitment reinforces confidence in their Pro segment performance.
    • Innovative Extended Aisle & Technology Initiatives: The extended aisle initiative is enhancing inventory visibility and speeding up quote turnaround, while advanced digital tools (e.g., MyLow Companion) empower associates across 1,700+ stores—driving operational efficiency and a superior customer experience.
    • Aggressive Global Sourcing Diversification: Lowe’s disciplined approach to diversify sourcing channels—reducing reliance on China’s roughly 20% share—positions the company to mitigate tariff risks and maintain pricing competitiveness amid global uncertainties.
    • Margin Pressure from Tariff and FIFO Impacts: Management noted that any incremental cost increases will flow through margins in the second half due to FIFO inventory accounting. If cost pressures persist, this could compress margins significantly. [Brandon Sink (index 21)][Brandon Sink (index 22)]
    • Weak Big-Ticket Discretionary Demand: Concerns were raised over subdued consumer activity in high-dollar DIY projects amid affordability challenges such as elevated mortgage rates, which could dampen revenue growth. [Marvin Ellison (index 16)][Brandon Sink (index 17)]
    • Intensifying Competitive Pressure: The evolving landscape—marked by increased competition from nontraditional e-commerce players and a challenging marketplace dynamic—may further constrain pricing power and market share. [Marvin Ellison (index 16)]
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    2% decline (from $21,364M in Q1 2025 to $20,930M in Q1 2026)

    The decline is driven by modest decreases across key business segments, including Home Décor, Building Products, and Hardlines, which reflects a continuation of consumer caution and macroeconomic pressures observed in previous periods. These challenges, such as reduced discretionary spending, have dampened overall revenue growth.

    Home Décor, Building Products, and Hardlines

    Modest declines (approximately 1–3%)

    Each of the key segments saw slight dips in sales, aligned with the overall softening in market demand seen before. This trend is likely a result of ongoing shifts in consumer spending focus and market uncertainties that have characterized previous FY periods, suggesting that while changes are incremental, they are indicative of broader economic challenges.

    Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities

    21% decline (from $4,262M in Q1 2025 to $3,379M in Q1 2026)

    The significant drop is due to lower net earnings (down from $1,755M to $1,641M) combined with less favorable working capital adjustments. In Q1 2026, the smaller reduction in merchandise inventory (a decrease of $926M, compared to $1,330M in Q1 2025) and a smaller increase in accounts payable ($1,945M versus $3,033M) led to reduced cash inflows from operations, echoing trends identified in earlier periods.

    Total Assets

    Essentially unchanged ($45,372M in Q1 2026 vs. $45,365M in Q1 2025)

    Stability in total assets is a result of offsetting asset changes, where increases in cash and inventory and short-term investments were balanced by declines in other current assets. This balance indicates that despite revenue and operating cash flow challenges, the company’s overall asset base remains robust compared to previous periods.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Sales

    FY 2025

    $83.5 to $84.5 billion

    $83.5 to $84.5 billion

    no change

    Comparable Sales

    FY 2025

    Flat to up 1%

    Flat to up 1%

    no change

    Operating Margin

    FY 2025

    12.3% to 12.4%

    12.3% to 12.4%

    no change

    Diluted EPS

    FY 2025

    $12.15 to $12.40

    $12.15 to $12.40

    no change

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    $2.5 billion

    $2.5 billion

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Pro Segment Performance

    In Q2 2025, Lowe’s reported mid‐single‑digit growth supported by strategic initiatives. In Q4 2025, high single‑digit comps were noted along with broad Pro category strengths and investments.

    In Q1 2026, executives reiterated mid‑single‑digit growth despite some weather disruptions, emphasizing sustained momentum and confidence in their Pro strategy.

    Consistent focus, with the narrative evolving to address short‑term weather impacts while reaffirming a solid Pro strategy.

    Pro Loyalty Initiatives

    Q2 2025 mentioned the launch of a loyalty program that deepened customer engagement. In Q4 2025, the redesigned MyLowe's Pro Rewards was highlighted as a key driver of engagement.

    Q1 2026 continued to emphasize the improved loyalty program with additional features (e.g., Spanish option, phone number at checkout) to drive repeat purchases.

    Steady improvement in program design and rollout, with increasing emphasis on customer experience and ease of use.

    Technology and Operational Efficiency

    In Q2 2025, investments included partnerships with Apple, NVIDIA, OpenAI and RDC transitions to flow‑through models. In Q4 2025, digital enhancements (AI, mobile app improvements) and expedited freight flow initiatives were underscored.

    In Q1 2026, the focus expanded further with the launch of an online product marketplace, AI-powered tools for associates and customers, and robust inventory management improvements.

    Ongoing emphasis on leveraging technology with a clear momentum toward scalable, AI-powered solutions and improved operational efficiency.

    Tariff Impacts and Margin Pressure

    Q4 2025 discussed how tariffs were managed within guidance and margin pressures were mitigated via productivity improvements. Q2 2025 did not address tariffs specifically.

    Q1 2026 provided detailed discussion on managing tariff impacts with best-in-class pricing tools and a portfolio approach, along with expectations for flat gross margins and timing impacts on margins.

    Increased depth and clarity in addressing tariff challenges, indicating a shift toward more proactive and granular mitigation measures.

    Global Sourcing Diversification Strategy

    Neither Q2 2025 nor Q4 2025 mentioned this topic.

    Q1 2026 featured an in‑depth look at the shift in sourcing mix (60% US, 20% China) and detailed initiatives to reduce dependency on China via a SKU‑by‑SKU evaluation approach.

    New topic emerging in the current period, reflecting a more focused and transparent global sourcing strategy.

    DIY Big-ticket Discretionary Demand

    Q2 2025 noted softness driven by elevated rates and inflation, with significant impacts on large discretionary items. Q4 2025 highlighted continued challenges in DIY big-ticket categories such as kitchen and bath remodels.

    Q1 2026 continued the discussion on pressure in larger discretionary categories, with added commentary on elevated mortgage rates (7%) and customer delays in major purchases.

    Consistent negative sentiment with persistent headwinds; the rhetoric has shifted slightly to emphasize macroeconomic factors without signs of recovery.

    Competitive Pressures from Traditional and E‑Commerce Players

    Q2 2025 discussed innovative measures (gig network, partnerships with delivery platforms) to address rural competition. Q4 2025 provided limited commentary on competitive pressures.

    Q1 2026 offered detailed insights, underlining both traditional and e‑commerce competition, with specific mention of rural market challenges and the use of technology and service strengths to counter them.

    Increased focus on competitive dynamics, especially in rural areas, with a stronger narrative on leveraging technology and customer service as differentiators.

    Appliances Category Performance and Next-Day Delivery Innovation

    Q2 2025 illustrated above‑average comps and a best‑in‑class fulfillment solution including next‑day/2‑day delivery. Q4 2025 underscored unit growth, next‑day delivery model, and market share gains in appliances.

    Q1 2026 reinforced strong performance in appliances with continued new product innovations (e.g., advanced washer/dryer) and reiterated leadership in delivering big, bulky products next day across almost every ZIP code.

    Consistent, positive performance that is reinforced quarter‑over‑quarter by innovation in product offering and delivery logistics.

    Total Home Strategy for Market Share Growth

    Q2 2025 highlighted the strategy’s role in driving Pro and online sales growth and readiness for market recovery. Q4 2025 emphasized initiatives including enhanced Pro engagement, online acceleration, and a loyalty ecosystem.

    Q1 2026 expanded on the strategy with additional elements such as the acquisition of ADG for new home construction market entry and further investments in technology and product assortment.

    Evolving strategy with consistent emphasis; the current period shows an expansion into new market segments (new construction) and deeper integration of digital and physical channels.

    Loss of Hurricane-related Demand Impact

    Q4 2025 noted a 100‑basis‑point benefit from hurricane-related demand with expectations to lap prior year gains, causing a slight drag in 2025. Q2 2025 did not address a loss of hurricane demand but mentioned disaster relief efforts.

    Q1 2026 discussed a conversion of hurricane impacts from the previous period (50 basis points benefit turning over) and anticipated offsets in later quarters (around 100 basis points in Q3 and Q4).

    Transitioning narrative: what was previously a clear benefit in Q4 is now being managed as an offset in Q1, suggesting a normalization of seasonal impacts.

    Negative Comparable Sales Trend and Potential Deleveraging Risk

    Q2 2025 acknowledged the third consecutive negative comp year with a set margin algorithm (15 bp contraction per comp point). Q4 2025 detailed declines in DIY discretionary sales and expected sales deleverage, while also noting some sequential improvements.

    Q1 2026 reported a 1.7% decline in comparable sales with significant month‑to‑month variation and noted SG&A and operating margin pressures, reinforcing concerns over deleveraging.

    Persisting challenge: Negative comps and margin risks continue across periods, with Q1 2026 reflecting a clear articulation of the trade-offs between lower sales volumes and fixed cost pressures.

    1. Acquisition Impact
      Q: How significant is the ADG deal?
      A: Management stressed that the Artisan Design Group acquisition is strategically aligned with expanding their Pro business into a $50 billion market and is expected to be EPS accretive in fiscal '26, reflecting their disciplined, opportunistic approach to growth.

    2. Operating Leverage
      Q: What is the comp-to-expense leverage outlook?
      A: Executives explained that after a flat first half, they expect improvement from a mix of efficient cost management and record operational execution, setting up modest margin expansion later in the year.

    3. Tariff Impact
      Q: How will tariffs and FIFO affect margins?
      A: Management indicated that while FIFO accounting will channel incremental costs into margins later in the year, their pricing tools and supplier relationships help mitigate this, keeping overall gross margins roughly flat.

    4. Full Year Guidance
      Q: Has the macro view for guidance changed?
      A: Leaders confirmed no change in their macro assumptions; they continue to expect full-year sales of $83.5–84.5 billion with stable operating margins, underscored by their Total Home Strategy.

    5. China Exposure
      Q: Can China sourcing be reduced further?
      A: Management is actively working to lower the current approximately 20% China concentration through diversified global sourcing, by reassessing SKU by SKU production locations.

    6. Marketplace Potential
      Q: What is the vision for the online marketplace?
      A: They are excited about partnering with Miracle to create the first product marketplace in home improvement, expecting robust growth by offering a wide digital assortment without new inventory investments.

    7. DIY & Big-Ticket Spending
      Q: How is DIY versus big-ticket performance trending?
      A: While the overall consumer remains healthy, management noted that big-ticket discretionary spending—especially in interior projects—has been subdued due to affordability challenges, yet appliance sales continue to be a bright spot.

    8. Extended Aisle Initiative
      Q: What progress is made on extended aisle?
      A: The initiative has yielded significant efficiency with rapid quote generation and enhanced direct deliveries, bolstering vendor performance and customer service across store operations.

    9. Appliances Pull Forward
      Q: Was there a pull forward in appliances sales?
      A: Executives confirmed strong ongoing performance in appliances, emphasizing consistent unit growth and superior in-stock levels, with no meaningful pull forward observed so far.

    10. Spring Transactions
      Q: How did spring transaction levels fare?
      A: Leadership stated that spring transactions were influenced by weather shifts, with adjusted comps showing a modest rebound, reflecting an inherent seasonality in ticket mix and volume.

    11. Localization Strategy
      Q: What’s the update on store localization?
      A: They are on track with initiatives like workwear and pet offerings, expecting completion in more than 1,000 stores by year’s end, thus improving space productivity and regional appeal.

    12. Weather Impact
      Q: How did weather affect market performance?
      A: Management observed that markets with steady spring weather outperformed, as sunnier conditions directly boosted sales, a trend already visible in improved April comps.

    13. Pro Business Performance
      Q: Did weather hamper Pro segment growth?
      A: Leaders confirmed weather did affect early Pro sales but noted that as conditions normalized, Pro performance improved, aided by a refreshed loyalty program and targeted execution.

    14. Nontraditional Competition
      Q: Are e-com pure plays threatening DIY sales?
      A: Executives believe that despite intensified online competition, their robust product knowledge, superior in-store experience, and technological enhancements position them strongly against nontraditional rivals.

    Research analysts covering LOWES COMPANIES.